Research Study: Self-Driving Cars In 10 Years

2020 seems to have the potential to be a magical year. By that time Apple is supposed to be making a car and self-driving cars are supposed to be an option for your morning commute. However, it’s easy for companies to make a five-year projection even without much to back it up. The results of a new study point away from the common 2020 target for self-driving cars and towards a slower rollout of the technology.

A WSJ report back on January 14th, 2015 pointed to self-driving cars hitting the road by 2020. That timeline has been taken and used over an over as a basis point for when fully autonomous vehicles will be part of life in the United States. The problem is, Boston Consulting Group disagrees. They have projected a more conservative timeline for the rollout of the futuristic machines.

The group conducted a survey of 1,500 U.S consumers who either recently purchased a vehicle or plan to buy one soon. The results of the survey revealed that consumers are interested in self-driving technology. Fifty-five percent of those surveyed said that they would be consider purchasing a vehicle with self-driving components, while 44 percent said that they consider the purchase of a fully autonomous self-driving car. According to those surveyed, 20 percent said they would be willing to pay an extra $5,000 or more for a vehicle with self-driving features. However, one surprising result of the survey was the main reason why consumers said they would consider self-driving cars. The number one reason was, “Lower insurance premiums” and the number two reason was, “increased safety.”

According to BCG, the real rollout of self-driving cars likely won’t happen until 2025, but it will be incremental. Tesla is expected to update their software with lane-assist capabilities later this year. GM will have a similar feature, called Super Cruise, in 2016. Automakers are expected to introduce self-driving features to vehicles bit-by-bit leading up to fully self-driving cars hitting roadways in about 10 years.

What is keeping self-driving cars off the road? If it will take many years for them to be part of everyday life, where is the roadblock? Is it the legal risks? Perhaps it’s concerns about consumer safety or trial and error as the technology is perfected?