U.S. Mobile Search Spend To Exceed Desktop In 2015

In a new report from eMarketer, the digital research firm estimates that U.S. marketers will spend more on mobile search than on desktop starting next year. The firm estimates that although less than a quarter of search spend went to mobile last year, that by 2018, mobile will account for a massive 76.7 percent of search spending.

Although the eMarketer data includes both tablets and smartphones in its mobile numbers, the company explains that the dramatic shift is being driven primarily by smartphones. However, it’s important to realize the market doesn’t have much control over what gets allocated to search advertising on tablets. Last year, Google’s enhanced campaigns removed the ability to bid separately on tablet and desktop traffic, with Bing Ads following Google’s lead this year to combine desktop and tablet traffic. Due to the fact that SEO is included in eMarketer’s estimates, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what is happening with the shift in ad spending.

However, this pace of change is certainly remarkable, even by the standards of the constantly evolving world of digital ads. Over just three years, mobile search will almost triple in dollar revenues, from $5 billion in 2013 to $9 billion in 2014, and subsequently to $13 billion in 2015. In proportional terms, mobile’s share of total paid search revenues will more than double over the same period, from 24.7 percent to 50.1 percent. In 2018, eMarketer estimates mobile search ad spending will account for 77 percent of all paid search spending, which will equal $26 billion.

Although a lower return on investment has been a negative point for advertisers, a massive shift still appears to be occurring, and skepticism about the value of mobile search does appear to be waning. However, eMarketer predicts that ROI on mobile will continue to lag behind desktop until “mobile performance measurement, particularly in relation to the impact on sales in physical stores, gets more precise.”

Interestingly, search firm RKG noted in its third quarter report that after holding down smartphone bids in 2013 in order to improve ROI for its predominantly U.S.-focused e-commerce advertisers, mobile CPCs rose sharply (27 percent year-over-year) and ad spend on smartphones jumped 117 percent. While still only accounting for a fraction of overall conversions, smartphone-attributed conversions rose 17 percent after RKG factored in cross-device conversions. The company also saw a surge in mobile search traffic from the Bing Yahoo network. However, RKG’s year-over-year share of ad spend on tablets and smartphones in Q3 rose just 18 percent, from 23.9 percent to 28.4 percent, which is well below eMarketer’s estimate of a 38.1 percent increase in mobile spend share from 2013 to 2014.

Last month, Google announced that it will be highlighting mobile-friendly sites with a mobile “badge” in its search results, thereby reflecting the increasing importance of mobile search. To receive the mobile-friendly badge, a website must meet four main criteria:

• Avoid software that is not common on mobile devices, such as Flash
• Use text that is readable without zooming
• Size content to the screen so that users don’t have to scroll horizontally or zoom
• Place links far enough apart so that the correct one can easily be tapped